Investing News Blog

Monday, April 03, 2006

Google worth $109 Billion?

The Motley Fool's Stephen Ellis has published an article on the value of Google and whether it is worth the price that investors are currently paying for it. He doesn't argue that Google is not a great company, he encourages readers to think about some of the problems that the company may face in the future.
With a P/E of 72 it's not hard to start comparing the price with the irrational exuberance of the technology bubble not so long ago! One wrong move or an earnings expectation not met and the price will only head in one direction.. dooooooown.
A couple issues that Google may face according to the Motley Fool article are:
  • Click Fraud - Google recently settled a lawsuit for $90 million. The issue overall seems to be still alive.
  • Keyword Pricing - Some large advertisers are saying that rising cost of keywords is unsustainable.
  • Cost of Content - Providers of content that Google aggregates from many sources for Google news and other services may begin to charge for its use.
  • Don't be Evil - The philosophy that seemed to put everyone at ease is falling apart. Privacy issues and the cooperation with the Chinese government's censorship is seen by some as just the start of Google becoming a money company.
  • Expansion - Expanding before thinking about money from the service or product.

Google's Not Worth $109 Billion
"Google is a fantastic company, and to some extent, its current high value is not surprising. The company would be more interesting to me in the low $100s, as competition kicks in and growth expectations drift toward a more realistic 20% or so. Google's current $300-something share price seems like a throwback to a few years ago, when companies were priced solely according to their vision and their audiences. Have we really forgotten the consequences of such blind optimism so quickly?" Motley Fool
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